By Pierce County Sheriff, Paul Pastor

The last 10 years has seen an overall decrease in serious crime in America. But the trend appears to be changing. Instances of reported violent crime in America increased slightly last year for the first time since 2006. Instances of reported property crimes, especially thefts and burglaries, also increased slightly.

Locally it appears that serious violent crime is leveling out after a slight increase from 2011- 2012. But serious property crime appears to be increasing slightly with burglary showing the most marked increase over the past two years. So, what should we expect to happen next in terms of crime nationally and in the Pierce County area?

I do not believe that we will see a huge upward spike in crime. But I believe that both nationally and locally, there will be a moderate upward trend in crime even as the economic situation improves.

Now this may surprise some people who think that crime rate – especially property crime rate – should rise when there is an economic downturn. But research on economic trends and crime trends in the last 50 years, shows that this is not the case.

It was certainly not the case during the worst part of our most recent Great Recession. Crime was going down nationally at the worst part of the recession from 2008 -2010. In the last two years, with the economy improving slightly, we see crime rising slightly. Property crime in particular may increase as commerce an economic activity increases. What are some of the factors which will drive my prediction of a slight to moderate increase in crime over the next few years?

Three factors have occurred recently and will continue to contribute to crime problems:

1. Part of the crime reduction over the last several years is due to the fact that large numbers of career criminals were locked up for long periods of time. As we cut back on prison spending and release more of these people, many of them – not all, but many – will resume lives of crime.

2. As we cut back on mental health spending, there will be more people with untreated mental problems in the community who will commit property crime and violent crime. There will also be more mentally ill people who will be victimized by predatory criminals.

3. With the cutbacks in law enforcement staffing, there are fewer officers who can work to prevent, respond to, investigate and suppress crime.

New technologies and tactics have helped compensate for the cutbacks but they do not make up the difference. Crime prevention and crime suppression still involves human beings. Property crime also becomes easier as the size and nature of our property changes. Twenty years ago, stealing a desktop computer or home stereo involved heavy lifting. Today, our computers and our entertainment technology are smaller and easy to steal and conceal.

Today, theft of money does not require stealing cash. One person’s credit card information can net more money than an armed robbery of a bank. I believe we will see more crime linked to technology and technology access, more use of social media to organize criminal activity, commit crime and sell stolen items. We already see this with organized retail theft, computer scams and internet fencing operations. We will see more property crime by older people as it can be done without resort to physical ability.

So, what steps should we take to deal with the coming increase in crime?

First, inform the community about what to expect and what is driving the trends. This is what I am doing right now! Next, enlist the community in crime prevention steps which will help

people protect themselves from burglars, identity thieves, and those who would cause them physical harm. Next, front load the criminal justice system. By investing in law enforcement, more criminals are prevented from committing crimes, interrupted and arrested while committing crimes, or identified and arrested immediately after crimes are committed.

Research shows that the immediate likelihood of arrest and prosecution – “the front end of the system” – is more successful in reducing crime than the remote likelihood of a long prison sentence.

So we know that resources devoted to law enforcement and prosecutor and local court staffing, again, when strategically applied, can make a real difference. It makes sense that the likelihood of timely consequences discourages crime.

Crime will begin to trend up in the next two years. I don’t want to see the community surprised. And I want to work with the community to be prepared. We know how to bring crime back down.

The question is – are we willing to apply what works?